The Curious Case of Conspiracy Theorists
Written by Amanda Tabert-DuGray
“A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?” Intuitively, you might think the answer is $0.10, but if you consider the question again analytically, you should get $0.05. How? Why? And what does this have to do with conspiracies? We’ll get there. But first, let’s put on our tinfoil hats and investigate the rabbit hole into the Wonderland of conspiracy theories…
Conspiracy theories are alternative explanations to the accepted narrative regarding significant events, and they are often accompanied by the idea that a group of powerful elites are secretly involved (e.g., “9/11 was an inside job”; Brotherton, 2013; Reid, 2021).
Maybe you’ve noticed the various conspiracy theories that have emerged since the onset of the pandemic (such as the belief that the COVID-19 vaccines are a part of Bill Gates’ plans to depopulate the world; Moore, 2022; Pyszczynski, Lockett, Greenberg, & Solomon, 2021). That’s because conspiracy theories generally spike during times of hardship or catastrophe; they are a method of coping (however bizarre or implausible) that we use to make sense of the chaos around us (Pyszczynski et al., 2021).
Studies have found that the more educated a person is, the less likely they are to believe in conspiracy theories (Douglas, Sutton, Callan, Dawtry, & Harvey, 2016; van Prooijen, Krouwel, & Pollet, 2015).
To understand this education-conspiracy link, participants with diverse educational levels were tested on their cognitive complexity — the “ability to detect nuances and subtle differences across judgment domains” (van Prooijen, 2017). The tests measured their beliefs in common conspiracies (e.g., “People never really landed on the moon, everything was recorded in TV studios”), their ability for analytical thinking (e.g., the bat-and-ball mathematical riddle; Frederick, 2005), and their tendency to believe in simple solutions to complex problems (e.g., “If I were in charge, the biggest problems of our society would be solved quickly”; van Prooijen, 2017).
The data from these tests suggest that higher education promotes analytic thinking, which in turn, decreases one’s tendency to believe in simple solutions and conspiracy theories (van Prooijen, 2017). It is important to remember that correlation does not mean causation, therefore we can’t conclude with certainty that the cure for conspiracy theories is simply to go get a degree. What the study does demonstrate is that the relationship between education and conspiracy theories is more complicated than we previously thought. Consequently, this makes it difficult to pinpoint the culprit responsible for the curious case of the conspiracies.
Finally, there is historical context to consider when determining whether a conspiracy theory is truly irrational and unjustified. For example, nearly 60% of Black Americans are not willing to get the COVID-19 vaccine due to an overwhelming distrust of the medical establishment (Funk & Tyson, 2020). From the eugenic control of the Black community to the research abuse of hundreds of Black men in the Tuskegee syphilis study, the belief that vaccinations could be a government conspiracy no longer seems that implausible (Hostetter & Klein, 2021; Washington, 2006).
Not every conspiracy theorist has equal justification to believe they’ve unearthed the “truth” behind the accepted narrative about any event, but the point here is that situational context matters. We don’t know how much truth is in every conspiracy theory, but we do know that some of these theories can and do have dire consequences on peoples’ lives (e.g., the re-emergence of measles in the US; Horne, Powell, Hummel, & Holyoak, 2015; Suran, 2021). Therefore, to combat dangerous conspiracy theories, it is important to shift the focus from what people believe to why they believe it.
Or...this entire post is just an elaborate conspiracy to trick you into believing the ball cost five cents...to distract you from the fact that I am the one with the bat. (Cue dramatic music.)
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References
Brotherton, R. (2013). Towards a definition of “conspiracy theory”. PsyPAG Quarterly, 88(3), 9-14. Chicago
Douglas, K. M., Sutton, R. M., Callan, M. J., Dawtry, R. J., & Harvey, A. J. (2016). Someone is pulling the strings:
Hypersensitive agency detection and belief in conspiracy theories. Thinking & Reasoning, 22(1), 57-77.
Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive reflection and decision making. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4), 25-42.
Funk, C., & Tyson, A. (2020). Intent to get a COVID-19 vaccine rises to 60% as confidence in research and
development process increases. Pew Research Center, 3.
Horne, Z., Powell, D., Hummel, J. E., & Holyoak, K. J. (2015). Countering antivaccination attitudes. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, 112(33), 10321-10324.
Hostetter, M. & Klein, S. (2021, January 14). Understanding and Ameliorating Medical Mistrust Among Black Americans.
The Commonwealth Fund. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/newsletter-article/2021/jan/medical-
mistrust-among-black-americans
Moore, J. (2022, February 25). Op-Ed: The anti-vax movement was already getting scary. COVID supercharged it. Los
Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-02-25/covid-anti-vax-childhood-vaccination-
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Pyszczynski, T., Lockett, M., Greenberg, J., & Solomon, S. (2021). Terror management theory and the COVID-19
pandemic. Journal of Humanistic Psychology, 61(2), 173-189.
Reid, S. A. (2021, January 27). Conspiracy theory. Encyclopedia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/conspiracy-theory
Suran, M. (2021, December 15). Why Parents Still Hesitate to Vaccinate Their Children Against COVID-19. Jama
Network. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787289
van Prooijen, J. W. (2017). Why education predicts decreased belief in conspiracy theories. Applied Cognitive
Psychology, 31(1), 50-58.
van Prooijen, J. W., Krouwel, A. P., & Pollet, T. V. (2015). Political extremism predicts belief in conspiracy theories. Social
Psychological and Personality Science, 6(5), 570-578.
Washington, H. A. (2006). Medical apartheid: The dark history of medical experimentation on Black Americans from
colonial times to the present. Doubleday Books.
Disclaimer
The blog posts are for informational and educational purposes only. The posts should not be considered as any type of advice (medical, mental health, legal, and/or religious advice). All blog posts have been researched, written, and edited by the undergraduate students and alumni of the Lifespan Cognition Lab. As a teaching and research-based lab, we encourage all lab members to help make knowledge more accessible to all communities through these posts.
